With a leadership challenge brewing in his own party, Reform ready to consume the Conservative's right, and his support collapsing across the UK, the question on everyone's mind is, when will Rishi Sunak call an election?

Last week, the Prime Minister stated definitively that he would not be calling a May 2nd Election. While I think we have all learnt to take his commitments with a substantial pinch of salt, my view is that he will keep to this line if he possibly can.

If he were to put the General election on the same day as residents go to the polls for local and regional elections, he risks tarnishing his non-parliamentary candidates with his own unpopularity. The Conservatives tend to do better when turnout is low. As General Elections have the highest turnout, he could inflate his oppositions' vote share, destroying his party's representation at every level.

The next most likely date would be October or November. This gives him time to recover in the polls, bring in popular legislation, and claim that his Government's policies are working.

This makes sense from a campaign perspective, but nothing about the Government's behaviour indicates a final, frantic push.

The Chancellor's Budget was frankly underwhelming, with major tax giveaways immediately wiped out by an income tax threshold freeze and the increased cost of living.

Furthermore, the legislative agenda for the next few months is bare. The Rwanda vote held on Monday was the final piece of major legislation coming through the Commons, with no new, major, "election winning" bills on the books for the foreseeable future.

I've also heard that ministers are clearing their diaries for April, taking fewer meetings, and spending more time in their constituencies. For my part, I've noticed Government Departments responding to letters and emails unusually quickly. I received half a dozen responses to letters I sent on behalf of constituents last week, with some of these responses coming just 24 hours after I initially approached the minister. Considering the normal delay is 2-3 weeks, this change is extremely noticeable.

Something is happening in Whitehall. This could simply be civil servants and private secretaries clearing inboxes in case of a General Election. Maybe they are as in the dark as the rest of us, but a pattern is emerging that should not be ignored.

In 2017, Theresa May told Parliament that she would not be calling a snap election, then, mere days after the house returned from its recess, we were clearing our offices and beginning the campaign in earnest.

While I would not bet on it, I suspect the Prime Minister will follow a similar path and choose a date in June or July. Enough time to ramp up a campaign but not so much that it gives his opposition, particularly the nascent but growing Reform UK, time to rally its support.

As has been widely reported in the media in recent days, the Conservatives have been raising millions in campaign funds, sometimes from less than reputable sources. The Prime Minister's lead strategists have been seen at Downing Street far more often than is normal 8 months out from an election, and most of his party's target candidates have launched their campaigns.

Rishi Sunak has, somewhat bizarrely given it is his decision alone, stated that his "working assumption is an election in the second half of the year". June or July would match this description and explain his minister's unusual behaviour.

The country is waiting. Barely one person in five supports this Government, and even within his own party, MPs and candidates are losing patience.

The debate over when the next election will be held is revealing of something quite deep in this Government. The date of the next election will not be when is best for the UK, or when the country his party was elected to represent demands it, it will be the moment that suits Rishi Sunak best.